This is an abstract from the 2024 IBO Report. Click here to download the full report
The disruption in the international blueberry market due to reduced production in Peru, caused by the El Niño phenomenon, was the main industry focus in late 2023. Peru’s volumes dropped 25% to 215,000MT, disrupting the usual trend of growth since 2019 when Peru became the largest exporter. During peak months, September exports were down 55%, and October was down 36%, which led to high prices that continued until year-end.
Peruvian exporters benefited from increased prices in scarce supply. In October, returns grew by 38% year-on-year, and by November, even a slight volume increase resulted in a value surge of 85%, adding $151 million (approximately €143 million) compared to November 2022. The overall increase in November and December reached $289 million (about €275 million), almost equivalent to Spain’s entire 2023 export.
Impact of reduced supply and price surge
The decline in early-season volumes was partly offset by late-season exports, which clashed with Chilean and Mexican supply but did not fully compensate for initial losses. Industry insiders noticed the likely shortfall as early as April-May when vegetative growth, due to hot conditions, became more apparent. However, the industry lacked experience with prolonged El Niño conditions, leading to widespread unpreparedness.
The impact varied by geography and altitude, with northern areas faring worse and high-altitude farms doing better. Proprietary genetics designed for heat tolerance performed well, particularly in southern Peru, boosting interest in such varieties. Despite El Niño’s impact, diversification southward is unlikely beyond current trends.
Varietal losses and adaptation strategies
The Biloxi and Ventura varieties, which dominate Peruvian blueberry farming, suffered significant losses, with Ventura’s drop being particularly severe. Some growers are planning to use Biloxi as a buffer for future extreme weather events.
The industry has been shifting towards spreading production more evenly across seasons to better supply key markets. There is a focus on the Chinese market, with a potential boost from a Chinese-backed port project in Chancay, which could significantly shorten shipping times to China. Additionally, the tariff reduction from 30% to 10% for Indian exports offers some optimism for Peru's future export opportunities.
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