In an exclusive interview with Italian Berry, the director of the Chilean Blueberry Committee, Andrés Armstrong, revealed the first forecasts for the upcoming 2025/26 season.
The Chilean blueberry industry is undergoing a significant transformation in response to the rise in global competition, while showing renewed optimism, as highlighted during the recent IBO (International Blueberry Organization) Summit in Cape Town and the “Blueberry Day” held in Chile last September.
Chile’s reaction to competition
In recent years, the Chilean industry has faced challenging times due to growing competition. While everyone talks about Peru as the leading exporter today, production growth is also coming from Mexico, Morocco, India and Southern China.
This competitive pressure has required deep changes in Chile to remain competitive in what has been defined as a “new market.”
These changes have been at times “very painful,” pushing some players out of the sector as they could no longer compete. However, those who remain are investing, expanding production with new varieties, and implementing the latest technologies.
Producers are now in a position to compete with the best berries worldwide. The atmosphere among Chilean growers and exporters appeared “much more confident” about what can be achieved thanks to these changes.
Positive signals from the IBO in Cape Town
The outlook from the “Blueberry Day” in Chile was one of great optimism. A similar sentiment characterized the event in South Africa. The global industry is growing, and consumption is rising thanks to better product quality.
Speakers at the IBO explained how the category has grown within their retail chains, highlighting in particular the consistency of supply in terms of both quality and volume week after week.
The emphasis on quality and consumer experience is driving demand growth. This focus on quality, combined with production development and investments in generic promotions (such as those supported by the U.S. Blueberry Council), makes the industry as a whole “quite positive” about the future.
The IBO also noted the new production capacity emerging in South Africa and the new market opportunities that South African authorities are opening for local growers.
New market goals and U.S. tariffs
Over the past 15 years, Chile has gradually shifted its focus from the U.S. market to Europe. In the last season, 43% of exports went to the United States and another 43% to Europe, placing the two markets on equal footing, with Europe growing and the U.S. slightly declining.
In Asia, attention has shifted from China to South Korea, which has become a fast-growing market for Chile. Japan and Taiwan remain stable, but Chile is losing ground in China while gaining in South Korea for the upcoming season, a trend likely to continue.
As for the US, the tariff situation remains uncertain for all exporting countries and could change at any time, affecting market strategies.
Forecasts and the frozen market
For the next season, fresh export forecasts indicate slightly higher volumes compared to the previous year. Growth in fresh exports is estimated between 2% and 5%.
This growth is being driven significantly by varietal renewal. New varieties are expected to grow by 69%, while traditional varieties are projected to decrease by 16%.
Another key factor is the frozen market. It is expected that this year and next, 68,000 tons will be shipped to the frozen segment.
This market has been very favorable since COVID, with strong prices, helping the fresh industry eliminate underperforming varieties by placing them into the frozen segment. This process is helping to improve the varietal mix for fresh exports.
Varietal programs and the future
The Chilean industry is showing strong responsiveness to competition. Among the proprietary varieties performing well in Chile are ‘Blue Ribbon’ and ‘SuzyBlue’.
Among the latest introductions, the Sequoia program from Fall Creek, focused on high chill varieties, stands out. MBO programs and OzBlu varieties are also grown in Chile and are driving growth.
The varietal transition is very fast: although the base is still relatively small, proprietary varieties are expected to reach 35% of exports in a single season.
Chile looks ahead with “great confidence.” It is expected that Italy will remain a strong market for Chilean blueberries in the future.
