As Mother’s Day approaches, California’s strawberry season is entering its peak, creating an ideal opportunity for U.S. retailers to capture incremental sales. With abundant supply and fruit reaching top quality, the market is preparing for a high-volume sales window.
A rapidly expanding crop: 2026 production data Forecasts for California’s 2026 strawberry crop point to a scenario of significant growth. Year-to-date (YTD) volume is 61% higher than last year and as much as 89% above the average of the past three years. Estimates indicate that potential weekly volumes could range between 6.9 million and 9.9 million trays through week 18 of the year. This would translate into an increase of between 28% and 78% compared with the previous year, equal to roughly 2 to 3.1 million additional trays.
U.S. retail performance: comparing volumes and revenues
An analysis of nationwide retail data, broken down into four-week periods, shows a dynamic market capable of moving very large product volumes:
- Period ending January 25: The year opened strongly, with volumes reaching 118.8 million pounds (+19.7% year over year) and revenues of $429.6 million (+0.8%).
- Period ending February 22: Volumes eased slightly to 133.7 million pounds (-4.6%), but the period generated the quarter’s highest revenue, totaling $517.2 million (-2.5% year over year).
- Period ending March 22: Retail sales volume reached 158.2 million pounds, marking a +3.3% increase compared with the same period of 2025. Revenues remained relatively stable at $453 million (-1.6% year over year).
"Promote, Promote, Promote": the key to driving sales
To manage the large California crop expected this season, the message to the retail sector is clear: "Promote, Promote, Promote." Promotions have proven to be a critical driver of incremental volume throughout the season.
Looking at 2025 performance, the effectiveness of this strategy is evident: promotions launched in April generated a +54.7% lift in volume, remaining strong in May (+52.3%) and peaking in June at +62.0%.
Outlook for retailers
Given expectations for a particularly abundant California crop, implementing a consistent and timely promotional strategy becomes essential to capture demand and maximize performance in this product category.
To fully capitalize on the current high-volume market window, retailers are advised to focus on large in-store displays, prominent ad placements, and aggressive promotions, key tactics to accelerate product sell-through and increase basket value.
